No deal in sight - markets need to adjust
Trump: "The ceasefire is on life support." Saudi Aramco advarer om at Hormuz-forstyrrelsene kan vare inn i 2027 selv med en løsning innen uker. Trump reiser til Kina onsdag – oljemarkedet er fortsatt ekstremt nervøst. Se TÝR Markets' morgenrapport.
TÝR Markets: en norsk kryptoplafftorm med MiCA-tillatelse fra Finanstilsynet og Norges laveste transaksjonskostnader
Trump: “The ceasefire is on life support.”, but more important: Saudi Aramco said on its earnings call this morning that even if we get a solution to the Strait of Hormuz situation within weeks, the disturbance could last well into 2027. Even if we got a deal today, normalisation would still likely take months.
Does not look like we are getting a deal anytime soon. Markets may have to start taking that into account and trade accordingly.
According to Axios, Trump also reportedly held meetings with military leadership to discuss potential kinetic options. Trump is expected to travel to China on Wednesday. Maybe China is what the world economy needs right now.
The countries/regions with the largest net crude oil import dependence on the Middle East / Gulf are mainly in Asia and are shown in the table below. Iran itself exported around ~1.5-1.8m bpd of crude oil, with China buying the majority of it. China alone is estimated to hold around 1bn barrels of strategic and commercial crude oil inventories combined. That sounds enormous, but it has likely taken decades to build and includes both state reserves and commercial stockpiles.
Oil market still looks extremely nervous - time to take note of that!
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